What is wrong with flat staking?
What is wrong with flat staking?
Now as mentioned: bets need to be recorded. It would even be recommended to start the whole betting on a high and professional level by just recording them on paper. Write down game by game what you would wish to bet. And then keep track of it. How would you do with it? Bet by bet, game by game. Whatever indication you got.
But how would you do it? As already mentioned and here or there referred to: there are a couple of stats you are advised to keep track of. But one very important part would be: how well would you do if you would place one unit per game. Just one unit on every bet, see if it is won or lost, take down what you lost (that would be one unit) or won (that would be the price you get minus the one unit you bet on it).
Ok. But how good is this system? Imagine you take down any bet that is indicated. The prices (or odds) you get would be spread between maybe 1.05 and 25.00. Because it happens that you get such a high price and have an indication on it. So you bet one unit on both these bets. Obviously there is a very high chance to win the bet on the 1.05 price. So you win (with a high probability) 0.05 units. But with a comparably high probability you are going to lose the one unit on this price of 25.00. Because you would only win it in 4% (or hopefully a bit more, because you have value and to have value you should have a probability of more than 1/25.00). So you would quite often los 0.95 units on these two bets — until you once hit this high price and then it will be leveled out.
Still it does not sound quite just, or does it? Isn’t there a better system to record those bets on very different prices? The answer is of course a: „Yes, there is.“
Before we dive into that it should be mentioned that should you record and bet the asian way this problem would diminish. Because the prices, if you bet on the „most balanced line“, would always be around 2.0. Actually a little bit below 2.0, because market would take a little margin. But this whole subject will be covered in the respective posts here.
So there is a much better way still to record those bets to balance out the problem of huge price differences. They would make it kind of „unfair“ or even give you misleading results once again involving the luck factor way too much. For example you win like two high prices, but lose a lot of low prices, still are getting a positive result, but should in fact review your bets. Because most likely you just had been lucky on these two bets.
So what is this better system now and how to calculate it? It is actually that simple: you stake every bet by basing it on the payout, not with one unit. What? Yes, you heard it right. You drive the size of your own part of the bet on one certain value that is „at stake“, we can call it.
Imagine we set up the total amount that is „at stake“ to 10 units. So theere are always the two sides involved: the one side placing the bet and the other side holding the bet. But there is actually not such a huge difference between these two sides. They more or less bet against each oth