Introduction to sports betting
Sports betting is a science. It's not about gambling; it's about consistently being just a little sharper at calculating the odds than the sportsbooks. You can't win every bet, but having even a small advantage is guaranteed to produce winnings long-term.
The maths behind it are that simple and any advanced punter knows and understands them of course: the true price (also referred to as „the true odds“) is the reciprocal of the probability. So whenever you get a higher price at market than this true price you find such kind of value bet that gives you the edge you need for this long-term winning effect.
The small problem we face you may discover here: how do we determine the probability and thus the true price? We get two kinds of answers: a „good“ one and a „bad“ one. Which one would you like to hear first? Ok: the bad one. This one is: we do not know. We can not ultimately determine a probability as we could when we flip a coin, roll the dice or spin the roulette wheel. Those probabilities are clearly to determine (at least mathematically; about the small exceptions we prefer to talk elsewhere…) and can also be proven with long term experiments. The good news you would wish to hear, too? It is this: no one else knows it either.
In sports betting there is this certain kind of random experiment of a pretty unique character: any sports event that takes place and that the bookies offer prices (or odds) for does take place just once. It can not be repeated under the same conditions. Teams change, players change, coaches change, weather changes, table positions change, formations change, everything will be different next time around. It can not be repeated.
This means: we can not determine a probability at all. Or can we? Well, there usually are some myths about that where the prices market sets up come from. One of them would be: „Odds compilers know better.“ Well, why would they? At least we can say: why should we not be able to compile prices on the same level as those odds compilers do? Find out about their secrets, learn it, do it yourself, be better than them. Another myth would be: all the people betting on the events drive the prices so you can’t beat them any more. This would be the ultimate „bulk intelligence“ experiment. But here you might still ask this question: why would a bulk of more or less naive punters that just wish to gamble with their money and hope to get lucky be wise enough altogether to work out the „optimal assessment“ of such an event they bet on? No, this makes no sense either. And it is also not the truth. People may get smarter, yes, this is true. And there are people that prefer the underdog, others that prefer the favorites. And there are surely some good odds compilers out there. But there is still no reason to give up.
Our Software betty does exactly what you are looking for and what is needed. It provides the framework to compile the prices on the highest possible level. And it gives the user the chance as well to introduce his own expertise, which he definitely wishes to do. Or would you wish to follow someone that proposes bets to you and tells you: „You gotta do this, this is a good bet.“? You would do this maybe because you are desperate already and think: „No, obviously I am not winning, instead rather losing. Maybe I try this strategy and wait for others to post their bets. Maybe I find someone that hits better than myself?“ But it is nothing you would do from the start. Any punter wishes to introduce his expertise — as long as he knew how to do it.
This is exactly what you can do by using betty and of course while doing so be ready to learn yourself. About market about how and where prices come from. About how to study stats and how to make most profitable use of the rich and deep features there are.